12/10/2023
Today Dollar rate closed in interbank @278.5Rs. Govt. controlled decline trend is same i.e., almost 1~1.1 Rs per day. Availability of dollar is still having question mark in open market. Open market dollar rate is 279Rs.
As mentioned yesterday, the Dollar index in international market is slightly decline trend at 105.72$. Israel announced to sell 30 billion US $ in open market. Dollar is under pressure.
Today IMF issued a report in which they clearly mentioned that the budget loss will be 7.6% of GDP instead of agreed 6.5% which will be approx. 1176 billion Rs more loss. That means a lot in economic term. IMF estimated that till June-23, the rupee value will be up to 30% of 285Rs. Now it will be more.
As predicted, the gold price is becoming high due to recent emerging Middle East condition and trading @1884.13$. The intraday high was 1886$.
In Pakistan, you can witness high volatility in price and trading at 203400 Rs Per tola. Due to multiple factors. In my opinion there is still room to get further gains till next week.
Due to developing Middle East tensions, the Oil Price in international market is also going high for security reasons. War premium returned to the oil market from Monday after the uncertain condition of Middle East.
WTI oil trading at 84.35$ and Brent oil trading at 86.87$ per barrel respectively. As I am still on the opinion that a Tug of war is going on between oil price and dollar.
Ladies and Gentlemen. I can pray and hope that Middle East escalations will be controlled soon. But I am sorry to say I am foreseeing a very intense and big war situation in the region. As many countries have been suck-in this war. God forbidden if more countries will take positions against each other (which seems to be) than horrible situation can be in the world. Major cargo ways and world supply chain is nearby and if it will get effected then whole world can be affected. Specially oil cargo. Our government should be ready to handle any kind of situation.
Gold will be also dependent on the situation. It may be range bound between 1850 to 1920 for couple of days but as I said earlier, if the tensions will escalate, the gold rates can cross 1950$ in international markets.