03/10/2026
Weekly digest: Oil steadies and gold slips as Fed hike bets fall
đąïž Oil steadies. Oil futures swung this week before steadying at around $102/barrel early Friday. Although analysts said midweek that the flow of oil from the region was nearing pre-war levels, news that the US is sending an additional aircraft carrier and 10,000 troops pointed to a risk of escalation. (Bloomberg)
đȘ Gold slips 2%. Gold ended the week at $4,192/ounce â down 2% on last week â as high energy prices overshadowed softer-than-anticipated US inflation data that cut bets for an immediate Fed rate hike.
đ Inflation lighter than expected. US core inflation stood at 3.0% in August, according to the Fedâs preferred gauge, coming in below expectations. While outwardly encouraging, the Bureau of Economic Analysis has adjusted how it calculates the index, which may or may not have impacted the numbers. (CNBC)
đŠ Fed hike bets fall. Following news of slower-than-expected US inflation last month, stocks rose on Wall Street and hopes grew that the Federal Reserve would refrain from a further rate hike next month, with money markets now seeing only a 35% chance. (Bloomberg)
đ€ BoE issues AI warning. The Bank of England warned this week that AI valuations are still vulnerable to a âsharper correctionâ than in July, which could have a knock-on effect on global growth and sovereign bond yields. It also said interconnected vulnerabilities in the financial system are on the rise, with growing odds that multiple risks could crystallise at once. (Bloomberg)
đČ US dollar advances. All G10 currencies except the yen weakened against the dollar in September, with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index up 1.8%. This marks the greenbackâs best month since June, following the Fedâs fresh focus on reining in inflation, which pushed US bond yields higher. (Bloomberg)
đ¶ Euro zone inflation jump. Inflation accelerated more than expected in some of the euro zoneâs top economies in September following the energy price shock. Pressure is now building for the ECB to raise interest rates again â in what would be the third such move this year. (Reuters)
âąïž Russia issues nuclear threat. Russia sent a warning to NATO this week saying it would be prepared to use nuclear weapons, if the alliance tried to isolate Kaliningrad, a heavily militarised Russian exclave sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland. NATO strongly denounced the threat of force and reaffirmed its support for Ukraine. (Reuters)