01/08/2026
Could China soon hold more gold than the United States?
According to analysts at BMO Capital, it may happen within the next five years. While the U.S. officially reports holding 8,133 tonnes of gold, growing evidence suggests China's true gold reserves are far larger than the government publicly admits.
Research by Money Metals analyst Jan Nieuwenhuijs estimated that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) secretly purchased 570 tonnes of gold in 2024, despite officially reporting an increase of only 41 tonnes. Similar discrepancies identified by Goldman Sachs and the Financial Times suggest China's actual gold reserves could already exceed 5,000 tonnes—more than double its publicly reported holdings.
BMO Capital estimates China's monetary gold reserves are now around 5,200 tonnes, representing approximately 13% of all above-ground gold. If current buying continues, China could rival or surpass U.S. gold reserves within five years. Longer term, analysts believe China may ultimately target 18,000 tonnes of gold to strengthen confidence in the Chinese yuan (RMB) and support its ambitions to reduce global dependence on the U.S. dollar.
China is also expanding its influence over the global gold market. Hong Kong has launched a new gold clearing and settlement system modeled after London's LBMA infrastructure, along with a new gold pricing benchmark called HAU. If successful, these initiatives could shift more global gold trading, liquidity, and price discovery away from traditional Western financial centers and toward China.
As central banks continue accumulating gold at record levels, this trend could have significant implications for gold prices, precious metals investing, central bank reserves, global finance, monetary policy, and the future of the international monetary system.
